Washington, DC – The economy in Latin America and the Caribbean is “on a glide path to steady growth” as the internationally economy picks up pace but “dangers remain,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest World Economic Outlook report, released on Tuesday.

The swings in risk aversion in global markets over the past six months have had significant effects on the region (Latin America and the Caribbean –LAC),” according to the report, which forecasts “moderate” growth of 3.75 per cent in the region this year and 4 per cent in 2013.

Specifically, the Caribbean economy is expected to grow by 3.5 per cent, while Latin America’s is forecast to expand by 4 per cent.

“High public debt and weak tourism and remittance flows continue to constrain the outlook for the Caribbean. The outlook for Central America, like that for Mexico, is closely tied to developments in the United States,” the IMF said.

“Spillovers to the region, both real and financial, from renewed crisis in Europe are likely to be limited,” the IMF added, however.

The IMF said that among commodity exporters in LAC, strong domestic demand growth moderated, as tighter macroeconomic policies began to bear fruit and the external environment weakened.

And while economic activity in LAC is still subdued, strong real linkages with the United States “offer some upside prospects as the United States slowly recovers,” according to the report.

“Spillovers to the region through trade, financial, and banking channels were active during recent months but with only limited effects on activity,” the report said.

It said that initially “a rise in risk aversion took some pressure off a number of economies in the region that were threatening to overheat”.

“But, after this pause, capital flows are returning and exchange rates are once again under pressure. Earlier policy tightening, however, is beginning to bear fruit,” the international financial body said.

It further stated that this combination of policy gains and recent resilience in the face of global sentiment swings means that the outlook is “promising”.

It, however, said, “inflation remains above the midpoint of the target band in many economies and credit growth is still elevated.

“At the same time, there is continued potential for downdrafts from Europe. While risks are broadly balanced, these tensions are complicating the tasks of policymakers,” the IMF further stated.

While the region grew strongly in 2011 external factors significant influenced these developments, the report said.

High commodity prices supported activity in many of the region’s commodity exporters despite a general slowdown in global growth and capital flows, which helped contain overheating pressures.

Internally, the tightening of fiscal, monetary, and prudential policies also helped moderate the pace of expansion.

Spillovers, the IMF said, are predominantly commodity related and, therefore, linked to Asian growth.

Financial spillovers, however, have been more closely related to European developments – “a rise in risk aversion stemming from concerns about developments in Europe led to a temporary reduction in capital flows to the region”.

The IMF warned that policies “must be alert to domestic overheating and must build on a strong foundation of prudential measures developed during the most recent periods of robust capital flows”.

It said that external pressure, which had abated briefly, are returning and would be premature to relax policy settings while inflation is still above the midpoint of target bands and risks tend to the upside.

“… Fiscal consolidation should continue (especially where it is needed to maintain debt sustainability), but social and infrastructure spending should be protected too.

“Fiscal policy in commodity exporters should focus on saving any windfall revenue gains while commodity prices are still strong, to build room for supportive action in case downside risks to the outlook begin to materialize

“In Central America, policies should shift toward rebuilding the policy buffers used during the crisis and adopting structural reforms aimed at boosting medium-term growth. Greater resolve is required in reducing debt overhang in the Caribbean while addressing weak competitiveness,” the IMF said in the report.

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  1. Everyone that is, except SVG, because we are fighting bankruptsy. Gonsalves is fighting to put us in. Eustace is fighting to get us out.

    Problem is Gonsalves can spend it quicker than we can scrounge it. We cannot trade our way out, so Gonsalves is trying to base our whole economy on scrounging.


  2. OOPS! Here goes good old Peter the p……. eater, had a w…… but, he been sniffing the coke and strong rum bottle again, however, let us not bother with negativism, maybe he will wake up and drink some strong coffee instead of coke and what ever goes with it, PM Ralph E. Gonsalves will keep the fire burning for the betterment of ALL Vincentians>>>>

  3. Peter’s right though,read the imf report on svg,Gonsalves has to take some pretty drastic measures to keep svg afloat in the coming years.We are the only country that hasn’t swallowed the bitter imf pill,but St.Lcia and others wh implemented imf reforms are better off for it.A real private sector will challenge the government, in Gunzenomics it’s better to be king of a bankrupt country,than pm of a prosperous one.In a real country a pm can be charged for rape, but svg is a dic*tatorship

  4. VINCYPOWA, when you said “who laughs last laughs longest” are you talking about the Red Dwarf being ill in Barbados, you sicko. You really have got to stop this spite against Gonsalves.

    Gonsalves did accept IMF terms, problem is he has lied again to the public by way of ommission of fact. He has undertaken not to give any wage increase, all employees are shafted by him once again.

    We can never become propsperous again whilst Gonsalves holds the reigns.

    International world record liar.

  5. VINCYPOWA, it warms my heart when you praise my posts, it must hurt you to admit your inferiority.

    But inferior you are to everyone who posts on this site, and in particular to Mr. Chance.


  6. Yes! ULP FOREVER, I read it, what does it say? why don’t both you and Peter read and try to comprehend or maybe try to take advantage of the education revolution, I am not sure if that will help anyway, seeing it is difficult for you both to take your blind folds off! Our PM has our small Nation being admired and respected Internationally, but you and your SVG haters who still have your blind folds and blinkers on at the same time cannot see the forest from the trees!!!

  7. CADDY KING, your obviously blind and stupid, and to hold such an opinion mentally corrupt. Gonsalves is disliked all over the Caribbean. I travel to the Islands, Europe, Africa and the Middle East on a fairly regular basis.

    Most ordinary people outside the Caribbean don’t know where Saint Vincent is. Those that do, the first thing they ask about is this the prime minister charged with rape. Some even know that SVG was noted as the third in rank in the World for rape per capita. Now with a prime minister not once accused of some kind of sexual assault, but twice accused, and twice relieved from prosecution by the action of the DPP, Colin Williams, that is something to shout about.

    The education revolution was a name taken from Venezuela by Gonsalves. What he calls a revolution was a stimulation process put forward by the EU, their idea, their money, As usual Gonsalves stole it as his own and lied to the people about it being a ULP initiative, it had already started under the NDP, and was in their 2001 manifesto.
    Most of the World has a laptop scheme for children, Gonsalves was late coming in with that even.
    I sometimes sit in on interviews of Vincentian youth, I can tell you that the ignorance and failure to grasp English and Mathematics is appalling.

    Our hospital is dirty, frequently without drugs and dressings. People having to use their own toilet paper at times. Shortage of sheets, pillows and pillow cases, people having to be fed by loved ones because the food is pigswill.

    Groups of worker being paid weeks and sometime months late. Workers who did not have pay for Christmas, children went hungry.

    Dozens of beggars on the streets of Kingstown, even school children begging for lunch and bus money.

    Crime is out of control, violent crimes against the person, hold ups and armed robberies, burglaries, rapes, murder, employment of police officers with criminal records. And I even suspect political assassination of one or more people.

    Sixty of the land owners at Argyle still not paid for their land confiscated for the airport, perhaps even stolen.

    SVG has been turned into a country of scroungers, no industry, no agriculture, on the way to no tourism, only state income is scrounging.

    Gonsalves is a liar, he told us he sometimes tells lies, he also said show me a liar and I will show you a thief.

    I believe when a man tells lies he does so to deceive the people, I think a liar is also guilty of deception, he steals the truth. There are many ways to tell lies and Gonsalves knows them all. He has lied to the people and Parliament.
    He has signed contract knowing it to be unconstitutional and unenforceable, telling the recipients the contract is wonderful for them.

    Besides being a liar he is a crass man, uttering vile and filth against people in the hope it will damage them.

    He has bankrupted SVG, causing the sale of the state bank and government supermarket.

    He has taken so many loans and issued so many Bonds and Treasury Bills, that we never be able to repay them.

    Then a US$1 million cash bag of money turns up and no one is questioned or charged with anything. One must ask does clean money come in an old crocus bag full of US cash?
    Then ULP family and friends begin banking sums of US cash, no questions asked.

    People are released from jail having committed capital and serious crimes.

    Gives his boy who is untrained in diplomacy the leading diplomatic job as Ambassador of the United Nations. I am sure the boy is clever, trained as an attorney. But just dropping him into that position was a seriously stupid appointment, it has caused us serious embarrassment.

    Dozens of people caught stealing from government departments are let off, and in some cases moved to better jobs

    And you have the audacity to praise this political failure and say “SVG haters who still have your blind folds and blinkers on at the same time cannot see the forest from the trees!!!

    Are you totally stupid or is the money paid to you to say such things so great.

    I can present hundreds of more instances.

  8. Peter, Again your stupidity astounds me! but it really shouldn’t have, I travel quite a bit also, so don’t try to tell me crap, you can fool the people in the NDP because they seem not to be taking advantaage of the education revolution! I talk with ploiticians, Senators and the like I even got a few to visit my lovely Island, SVG. they were even surprised, saying SVG was far more than they expected, So Peter why don’t you shut up or go and fool the dim wits that you are accustom to fool! IDIOT!!!!!

  9. Gunzy is using an old cadet trick on the public service,whenever we were taking people on long hikes we would tell them the end is around the next corner,when they reach there we tell them no it’s just around the next one..over and over again.Gonsalves will tell the public service “if the economy does well in july” for 6 more years if he’s still in power past this year,the public servants need to learn to read,the imf report says that salaries will be maintained at current levels…If gonsalves talked to the public service in the usual crass vulgar ulp way here’s the translation “Haul yo rasss me nah pay aryo”
    The publc servants wont have another roadblock revolution,because many of them believe it’s their fault the ulp got to funk up SVG,in all my years SVG has never been so funked

  10. Gonsalves has said on a number of occasions “I am here to finish the work of Maurice Bishop”

    Well with regards to Maurice Bishops work to decieve the IMF and World Bank, here is an excerpt.

    August 3rd 1983, Grenada: At a meeting on this date, the Political/Economic Bureau of the NJM noted that the International Monetary Fund requirements for badly needed assistance would be difficult to meet. Comrade Maurice Bishop suggested that “we use the Suriname and Cuban experience in keeping two sets of records in the banks for this purpose”
    Extracted from Public Records:
    Box 1 Folder 72. Minutes of Meetings – August 1983
    Date: 3 Aug 1983: Description: Minutes of Central Committee, Political Bureau, Economic Bureau and other Meetings refer to the economy, fraudulently readjusting the books for IMF.
    Ref: The original document held by Grenada Public Records Office [available to the public]

    Further Records
    At a meeting on August 3, 1983, the political/Economic Bureau of the NJM noted that International Monetary Fund requirements for badly needed assistance would be difficult to meet. “Comrade Maurice Bishop suggested that we use the Suriname and Cuban experience in keeping two sets of records in the banks for this purpose” Later in the meeting “Comrades again highlighted the urgent importance of training Comrades to adjust the banking figures. Someone should be sent to Cuba or the Soviet Union” And again “The comrades from Nicaragua and Cuba must visit Grenada to train Comrades in the re-adjustment of the books.”
    page 9 Deception on Economic Matters

    Gonsalves when making statements like “I am here to finish the work of Maurice Bishop” should show us what part of his work he is referring to. Problem is Gonsalves is a self professed liar, so maybe we can dispense with that.

  11. If they didn’t switch to quasi capitalism in the last few years allowing people to own land/phones/businesses then Cubans would really be cooking the books…..for food

  12. PETER! I am not sure about your sanity! but I can see you still have your blinkers and your blind fold on at the same time, however, let’s change the subject a little bit eh? tell us something about the senator and her inalienable rights nah? and who is a dictator, who stone church, and who doing all the different misdeeds and still want to run government or are you waiting for today, Monday when mouth open and story jump out! MY GOSH, TALK ABOUT LUNATICS EH?

  13. VINCYPOWA, do you think for one moment that myself or anyone else would click on any link that you embody in a blog. We all understand the danger of doing that.


    CADDY KING, wouldn’t you just love to change the subject. What I posted is true backed by locations of public records. I have hundreds more, copies of orders to imprison people without trial. Locking up all the Rasta’s. Shutting down newspapers, Shutting down radio station. Murder and more. Maurice Bishop was one of your original Marxist-Leninist scum bags. Taking money and arms from North Korea, Most East European countries including USSR RUSSIA and every scum nation of that time. There were more arms found in Grenada than a country of several million could use in 20 years.
    Maurice Bishop was a friend of Gonsalves, who helped him with some of his speech’s.

    Lay down with dogs, get up with fleas.

  14. Peter No! Tell us about the Senator of the NDP who accused your parliamentarians of stoning the church, his wife beating one up for another woman and all the other dutiness going on in your NDP, as the say goes: You must first take the beam out of your eyes >>>> stop promoting a dead horse ( NDP ) and get on board with the coalation of the willing who love SVG or sink with the dying new dirty party >>> new distructive party>>>>> negative distructive people !!!!

  15. CADDY KING, stop trying to change the topic, are any of those things as serious as what Cuba has been proved to of done.

    Like Gonsalves you have introduced some actual happenings, mixed with lies and propaganda, 99% truth and 1% lies makes the whole things 100% lies. UNITY LIARS PARTY.

    What I submitted was all true.

    Don’t you really get it yet, there is no coalition of the willing, that was a Gonsalves lie to trick people like you.

    And as for your very obvious frustrated reply, which only shows that your a seriously unstable turd.

    You can say whatever you want about NDP, its not my party, and neither is the ULP MARXIST Party.