The prevailing conditions in the equatorial Pacific and Tropical North Atlantic Ocean suggest increased storm activity through December, a regional forecaster said on Monday.
“It cannot be overemphasised — particularly after the record-breaking category 5 hurricane Beryl — plenty of flooding and nearly non-stop record-breaking heat — that 2024 is a year of climate extremes in the Caribbean,” said Cedric van Meerbeck, climatologist at the Barbados-based Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH).
Summarising the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) findings, van Meerbeck said a transition to La Niña may occur in the equatorial Pacific while near record-warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperatures will likely continue.
“For the Caribbean islands and Belize, such ocean conditions imply increased tropical cyclone and severe weather activity through December, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts,” he said.
van Meerbeck said unusual oceanic heat further implies episodes of “oppressive humid heat” could continue into early-November, particularly in the Aruba, Bonaire and Curacaos, the Guianas and the Windward Islands.
“Finally, the Guianas will transition from the hot and dry season into cooler and (much) wetter conditions from late November, except in the far southwest,” the climatologist said.