President of Cricket West Indies, Kishore Shallow, 40, has performed almost as well as Opposition Leader Godwin Friday in a poll about who can do a better job as prime minister than 78-year-old Ralph Gonsalves.
At the same time, the Unity Labour Party’s (ULP) heir-apparent, Camillo Gonsalves has performed relatively poorly and almost half as well as his main competitor within the ruling party, Sabato Caesar, 43.
Shallow could emerge as a candidate for the main opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) in North Leeward in the next general elections.
Friday, 64, was the most preferred alternative to Gonsalves as prime minister, with 21% of respondents saying they think he could do a better job.
Friday was followed by Shallow at 19%.
Only 9.31% — or one of every 10 — of the people surveyed saw the younger Gonsalves, the 52-year-old minister of finance, as a better alternative to his father, who has been in office since 2001.
Camillo Gonsalves, a former diplomat, is into his second five-year term as MP for East St. George and had long been said to have been preferred by his father as the next leader of the ULP.
Caesar, who is into a third five-year term as MP for South Central Windward, performed almost twice as well as Camillo Gonsalves, who is said to be Caesar’s closest rival for the leadership of the ULP when the post becomes vacant.
Caesar got the nod from 17.01% of the respondents.
“Although by small margins, it is notable that a ULP candidate is the third choice for an alternative prime minister,” said the Barbados-based Caribbean Institute for Governance and Policy Research (CIGPR), which commissioned the survey, the results of which were released to the media on Wednesday.
“It is also notable that the opposition leader Dr Friday and Dr Shallow share close results despite Dr Friday’s position as the Leader of the Opposition. This may in part be connected to [the] majority of Vincentian’s appetite for a younger leader and the overall leadership qualities that Dr Shallow has despite him not yet being elected which is a remarkable accomplishment.”
The survey was conducted in all 15 constituencies in St. Vincent and the Grenadines between June 1 and 16.
There were 1,123 respondents – 48% males and 51% females — with a 99% response rate to the poll, done using a digital instrument with in-person surveying.
The results show that 9.22% of respondents felt that Central Kingstown MP, St. Clair Leacock, an NDP vice president, could do a better job as PM than Gonsalves.
At the same time, 4.83% of respondents felt that East Kingstown MP, Fitz Bramble, an economist, could do a better job.
Senator Keisal Peters, who was the country’s first female minister of foreign affairs before being assigned the national mobilisation portfolio in July, was at 2.24%.
Political observers say that the ULP is attempting to boost Peters’ profile as the party prepares to field her as a candidate against NDP chairman Daniel Cummings in West Kingstown.
Akin John, a lawyer who is said to have been flirting with NDP for years and is the son of former East St. George MP, Stanley “Stalky” John, was favoured among 2.06% of respondents.
Friday stands best chance of defeating PM Gonsalves
Meanwhile, the survey found that 26.4% of respondents felt that Friday stood the best chance of defeating PM Gonsalves.
The opposition leader was followed by Shallow — 18.6% — and Leacock — 15%.
“Given Dr Friday’s position as the Leader of the Opposition, his standing comes as no surprised (sic). On the other hand, Dr Kishore Shallow has an impressive showing of support despite not being yet being elected,” CIGPR said.
“Given the age difference between Dr Friday and Shallow, there is an early indication of confidence in Dr Shallow as a future leader in St Vincent and the Grenadines. Consideration however must be given to where Dr Friday’s support will go in his absence.”
Some 14.15% of respondents felt that another person could do a better job as prime minister.
On the question of who stands a better chance as an opposition leader to defeat PM Gonsalves, Shallow also scored relatively high, with 18.66%.
Friday dominated with 26.43%. However, NDP chairman, Daniel Cummings, who is into his third term as MP for West Kingstown, scored only 7.5%, compared to Leacock, 15%.
Bramble, who failed in a bid to become an NDP vice president since being elected MP for East Kingstown in 2020 did relatively well, with 10.89%.
The NDP’s candidate for North Windward, Senator Shevern John was at 5.36% and Akin John 2.05%.
Louise Mitchell, daughter of NDP founder and former prime minister, the late Sir James Mitchell, was at 0.27%.
Sources say that the NDP is considering Mitchell as a candidate in West St. George.
Of the respondents, 2.05% felt that Akin John stood a better chance as an opposition leader to defeat PM Gonsalves.
Of note, 13.84% of respondents felt that another person stood a better chance.
Regarding Vincentians’ perception of which party would win the next election, 33.7% felt that the ULP would retain office, while 30.1% felt that the NDP would capture the reins of government.
“This result can provide some inference as to where the base of the two parties rests. There is a sizeable percentage of respondence (sic), 36.1 percent that answered unsure.”
CIGPR said the data highlights that the election next general elections — constitutionally due by February 2026 — will be determined by the swing voter particularly given the closeness of support between the two parties.
The poll shows that 57% of electors said they will be voting in the next general elections while 20% said they will not be casting a ballot.
A further 22.9% indicated that they were unsure whether they were voting.
“This 57 percent of respondence (sic) who indicated that they were voting is in line with the combined total of respondence, 63 percent, who indicated which party they felt would win the upcoming election,” CIGPR said.
It said this 57% of respondents who indicated that they will be voting likely represent the total active base of the ULP and the NDP.
The 50% of respondents who said they were unsure whether they would vote are likely to determine the outcome of the election, the pollster said.
78 years old means it is time to get out of the way. The situation is not getting any better, only more bleek, like a whiter shade of pale. However polls look skeptical when the electorate is only sixty percent with twenty-two percent unsure they will be voting. Anyway I think, it is time for the PM to retire with some kind of dignity.
Yes ,Shallow would be a breath of fresh air on our political landscape. We have to rid ourselves of the likes of Saboto and Camillo and Ralph. This country is too fragmented because of our present crop of politicians. The old heads in NDP, even Friday, need to start mentoring the likes of Shallow to take the reigns of leadership. NDP’s approach has been a dismal failure. Why not groom a new set of intelligent young men and women to take over the party? Voters are yearning for something like this.
Most Vincentian see Camillo Gonsalves as a foreigner. He needs to defend off his high horse. His treatment of aYuggie Farrell is still fresh in.the minds of the public. He is suffering from.a superiority complex and is not one of us. The Comrade is charming and diplomatic. Baby Doc lacks these traits.
Are these pollsters English speakers? Their language usage is quite suspect. I hope their stats abilities are much better.
Modooooo, wa mister ugeee
Dexter Rose every one in SVG knows that you drank from.the socialist tree. The poster done was scientific. It is a fact that Vincentians do not see Camillo as one of us. He is a foreigner by birth and genealogy. He was imposed on the rest of us by the Comrade.