By Joel K. Richards
Since the majority of United Kingdom (UK) voters voted for their country to leave the European Union (EU), I have watched with keen interest at the ensuing political and economic developments there. Politically, Brexit has already accounted for the political careers of both former Prime Ministers David Cameron and Theresa May. It has also ushered into office Boris Johnson, one of the foremost architects and advocates of Brexit whose insistence on leaving the EU even in the context of a “no deal”, threatens to stir up a parliamentary rebellion against him along multi-party lines. Economically, many experts have predicted that Brexit will harm economic growth in the UK due to changes in migration, foreign investment and trade among other factors. Essentially, the result of the UK referendum on exiting the EU has created strong political and economic headwinds, which are already having and will continue to have ripple effects far beyond the UK.
Writing in the Washington Post in March this year, Fareed Zakaria, a CNN host, renowned journalist and political scientist, said that Brexit will mark the end of Britain’s role as a great power. This is the first cautionary tale I wish to highlight, and it emanates from a school of thought that suggests that the UK is stronger within the EU than outside. As a member of the EU, the UK enjoys access to an almost seamless market of over 500 million people and it has access to the EU’s vast political resources, which are often projected, around the world. Outside of the EU, the UK stands alone and will be in a disadvantageous position in navigating complex relationships with the US on trade and with other countries such as China and Russia as it relates to setting the global agenda.
While the UK is likely to be weaker outside of the EU, the reverse is also true since the UK stands alongside France and Germany as the three most economically and politically powerful countries within the EU. Without the UK, the EU will lose a significant military power, a large and vibrant economy as well as a major contributor to the EU’s budget. The broader implications of this are two-fold. First, there is the potential loss of influence with respect to the EU’s foreign and security policy. Second, Brexit also has the potential to embolden euro-sceptics in other parts of Europe and this can cause even more fractures within the EU. Of course, given the chaotic nature of the Brexit process to date, this may nonetheless serve as a disincentive for other factions thinking of an EU divorce.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, the major cautionary tale I want to focus on is the message that the Brexit referendum result has sent to policy elites, free-market proponents and business and political leaders around the world. The EU has long been an advocate of open markets for the free flow of capital, goods and services. As an economic and political bloc, the EU itself has morphed into an entity that guarantees freedom of movement for people, goods, services and capital. In absolute terms, EU citizens are better off because these freedoms have generally improved the quality of life for millions of them. However, there are also a large enough number of people who have felt disaffected by deeper EU integration. In the UK for example, some nationals expressed concern about the billions of dollars of their tax dollars that were being spent on the EU whilst certain public services and public infrastructure were falling apart. In a post-referendum survey conducted by two UK non-profit entities — UK in a changing Europe, a think-tank, and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, a charity, persons in mainly low income and deprived areas — indicated that they simply were not coping against the backdrop of low-paid and insecure jobs, rising levels of violent crime and government austerity. For many of those surveyed, voting for Brexit was their way of demanding attention from the business leaders, policy elites and the political establishment in London.
Unfortunately for the UK, its class of elites did not pay attention to the marginalised groups and the country is now on a path of great political and economic uncertainty. Elsewhere in Europe, elites would be wise to listen to the voices of those who have an overwhelming feeling that the system is rigged against them. Of course, the problem is deeper than this because both the UK and the EU must confront toxic nationalism and xenophobia, which are also creating fissures in their societies.
Finally, I remain convinced that should the UK proceed in exiting the EU as it is widely expected to do, both parties will be worse off. In a worst-case scenario, if there is no deal, the UK, in particular, will have to face higher regulatory, trade and economic barriers in doing business with the EU which will place its businesses at a disadvantage against the much larger EU bloc. Furthermore, Brexit will leave both the EU and the UK facing an uncertain world where their place in it cannot be taken as given. In a subsequent article, I will expand on the implications of Brexit for the Caribbean region.
(Joel Richards works in the field of international trade and development. He is currently based in Europe.)
The opinions presented in this content belong to the author and may not necessarily reflect the perspectives or editorial stance of iWitness News. Opinion pieces can be submitted to [email protected].
Very good analytical piece. As a registered voter in the UK I did not vote in the referendum, like so many others who felt the ‘stay’ voters would win. But what you kept hearing from many West Indians was that the Poles were taking over both their jobs and the country, and then of course the millions given to the EU could be used to address those issues highlighted in the article. The Brexiteers conned the public with these promises. Now the public is really waking up to reality. As for the implications for the Caribbean: just one consequence- EDF allocation will never be the same, and that goes for other development projects dependent on aid.
Thanks for the feedback Arnold. In the follow up article I’ll touch on the EDF issue that you raised. I agree with you that EDF allocations will not be the same and this will be both from the UK and EU side of things. I have mixed views on external funding as well because while I accept that we need the resources, I’m often concerned that funds are not channeled in areas where they’re most needed and sometimes, even when they are allocated to areas for which there is a need, the manner is not always the most efficient.
The UK is a democratic Country and carried out a referendum vote three years ago, which was the largest such poll turnout in its history. The Vote was carried by those who wished to exit from the E.U. An E.U which is seen in the UK as a profoundly remote and a grossly undemocratic institution.
However, many parliamentarians are refusing to accept the results of the vote. And many would say they included the previous Prime minister who voted to remain and her finance Minister also, hence the existing British Prime Minister’s problem. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyyBqSBgwQU
Frome my understanding, while you Joel K. Richards have given one side in your article you however do slants towards the remain side of the argument. The silent majority of the British people think that they were fully aware of the issues involved before they voted to leave the rest of the E.U. An E.U which exports more goods to the U.K than the UK to them.
Moreover according to those who wish to exist the EU block, in economic terms, the USA an already developed market, INDIA and CHINA and the rest of the developing world, offers by far a far better prospect for the future, than the increasingly stagnating EU market.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-49557123/dr-david-nicholl-challenges-rees-mogg-over-no-deal-brexit-plan
In a talk at the Oxford University Union, a case was made as to why some fear the people’s choice for a Brexit. According to most British people, the E.U is most undemocratic and its Court is an assault on democracy and Britain’s democratic principles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUKjTPPcOdQ
Therefore ARNOLD THOMAS, it would appear that you are most ill-informed. As stated, the UK’s parliament, the most ancient democratic parliament in the world, now plays second fiddle to the European Court and to E.U laws. And many Britons finds this fact profoundly unacceptable.
Also, an independent Britain, looking to reengage with those nations it knows, could be good for Caribbean businesses looking for trade, rather than Caribbean Governments, looking for Aid. Trade creates Jobs while Aid fills the pockets of nepotistic families who controls government spending.
Good luck to the Brits!
In a talk at the Oxford University Union, a case was made as to why some fear the British people’s choice for “Brexit”. According to most of the British people, the E.U is a most undemocratic institution and its Court is an assault on democracy and democratic principles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUKjTPPcOdQ
Therefore ARNOLD THOMAS, it would appear that you are truly most ill-informed. And as stated, the UK’s parliament, the most ancient democratic parliament in the world, now plays second fiddle to the European Court and E.U laws. And many Britons finds this fact and state of affairs, profoundly unacceptable.
Also, an independent Britain, looking to re-engage with those countries and peoples it knows, could be good for Caribbean businesses, Caribbean businesses looking for trade rather than Caribbean Governments, looking for Aid.
So good luck to the Brits!
In a talk at the Oxford University Union, a case was made as to why some fear the majority British people’s choice for a Brexit. According to most British people, the E.U is most undemocratic and its Court is an assault on democracy and democratic principles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUKjTPPcOdQ
Therefore ARNOLD THOMAS, it would appear that you are most ill-informed. As stated, the UK’s parliament, the most ancient democratic parliament in the world, now plays second fiddle to the European Court and E.U laws. And many Britons finds this fact profoundly unacceptable.
Also, an independent Britain, looking to re-engage with those it knows, could be good for Caribbean businesses looking for trade, rather than Caribbean Governments, looking for Aid. What is sad is that some British parliamentarians are refusing to carry out the majority wish of the ordinary British people.
Good luck to the Brits!