By Kenton X. Chance
BRIDGETOWN, Barbados —The number of Canadian visitors to the Caribbean fell by 9% to 1.67 million, while arrivals from Europe dropped about 5% to 2.53 million during the first half of 2025, compared to the year-ago period.
Paul Garnes, database administrator at the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), said on Wednesday that in the case of Canada, this was due to softer demand tied to weaker consumer confidence, higher travel costs and currency events.
Garnes told the 2025 State of the Tourism Industry Conference taking place here through Friday that Europe remains an important market to Caribbean tourism.
However, demand is under pressure due to economic headwinds and or stronger competition from other destinations.
Intra-Caribbean travel registered 560,000 arrivals, representing 1.2% growth, adding, “This continues to support regional resilience.”
South America was another “bright spot” with arrivals jumping more than 25%, moving from 790,000 to just under 1 million.
“And then in other markets, including Asia, Africa, and others, we saw solid double-digit growth, up 12% to nearly 3.8 million arrivals,” Garnes said, adding that this shows that the Caribbean is diversifying beyond traditional source markets.
Taking a closer look at Canada, Garnes said Canadian outbound travel took a hit in the first half of 2025, especially as the US tariffs, trade tensions and broader uncertainty pushed many Canadians towards domestic trips and alternative destinations.
For the Caribbean, about 1.7 million Canadian tourists visited between January and June, down just over 9% from last year.
“And it pulled our recovery rate back from nearly 86% of 2019 levels in 2024 to 78% this year. “
From January to March, arrivals dropped sharply — down 12% in January, 15% in February, and 10% in March.
“These losses were even deeper when compared to 2019, with winter months still 27% to 31% below pre-pandemic levels,” Garnes said.
The downward trend continued in April and May, though the contractions were smaller.
Then in June, there was a rebound as arrivals grew nearly 7% year-on-year, even as that month was 11% less than 2019 volume.
“So when we look at Canadian arrivals by destination, the results were very uneven,” Garnes said.
He said that of the 19 CTO reporting destinations, only eight recorded growth in the first half of the year.
“Increases range from a small 2% to a strong 36%. Bermuda, Curacao and Aruba were the top-performing destinations for Canadians.
“Looking further back to 2019, only six destinations have fully recovered their pre-crisis volumes. For the rest, Canadian arrivals are still below 2019 levels.”
He said the European economy showed moderate growth in the first half of 2025, supported by services and manufacturing.
“Inflation eased, employment held steady, and discretionary spending improved, factors that helped sustain outbound travel.”
He said long-haul travel from Europe is rebounding, but destination performance still depends heavily on how each market is recovering and where travellers choose to go.
By the end of June, about 2.5 million Europeans had visited the Caribbean — down almost 5% from last year and 17% below pre-crisis levels.
“Month by month, arrivals were weak,” Garnes said, adding that the first quarter saw declines averaging around 7.5%.
“April was the lone bright spot, with a very slight uptick, but May and June slipped again. Overall, quarter two fell by a smaller margin, about 2%.
“Compared to 2019, recovery rates vary widely, from just under 70% in January to nearly 93% in May.”
He said most Caribbean destinations saw declines in arrivals from Europe.
“Only seven of the 19 reporting destinations grew in the first half, led by Guyana, Anguilla and Antigua and Barbuda. Growth ranged from just under 2% to about 36%,” Garnes said.
“So, looking at recovery since 2019, just six destinations have fully surpassed three pandemic levels, with gains from 2% to 79%.”
Overall, tourist arrivals to the Caribbean grew by 1.9% during the first half of 2025, despite softening demand from North America.
He said that overall, the region still recorded arrivals 6.1% above 2019 — pre-pandemic — levels.
“Considering tourist arrivals then, in the first half of the year 2025, the Caribbean tourism industry showed strong resilience, continuing to grow despite external challenges,” Garnes said.