Barbadian pollster Peter Wickham says he was not surprised by the results of the Nov. 27 general elections, which saw the Ralph Gonsalves-led Unity Labour Party losing office, after almost 25 years.
The ULP retained only one of the nine seats it held in the previous parliament and failed to win any of the six seats held by the New Democratic Party, resulting in the NDP winning the polls 14-1.
“I’ve done a couple of elections in the Caribbean, and this is certainly one of the more interesting ones,” Wickham, a pollster for the ULP, said on the state-sponsored broadcast.
“I do feel that every election is an opportunity to learn, and I have the benefit of being a pollster as well as being an analyst,” said Wickham, who did not release any polling data ahead of the election, having noted that he cannot do so without his clients’ permission.
“So, I have insight before and after, and I can tell you that the outcome … is certainly consistent with my science. And yeah, it’s interesting to see it has happened this way,” the pollster said.
“There’s a distinct possibility that it could easily have not happened this way but that is perhaps the kind of analysis that I can give more comprehensively on another occasion. But the idea that it was a knife-edge is actually quite true but this is how it happened. And as I said, the science suggested to me that this was entirely possible.”
The results show Gonsalves as the only ULP MP to retain his seat, having been returned as parliamentary representative for North Central Windward, a position he has held since 1994.
Among the casualties of the polls were Agriculture Minister Saboto Caesar and Finance Minister Camillo Gonsalves, both of whom had been identified as potential successors to Gonsalves.
Caesar failed in his bid to secure a fourth consecutive term as MP for South Central Windward, while the younger Gonsalves was trying for a third term as East St. George MP.
Wickham paid tribute to the legacy of the former prime minister, saying that the Gonsalves era has ended.
He noted that his career as a political analyst coincided with Gonsavles’ time in power, having begun political consultancy in 1998.
“… and curiously enough, I sat in his former office at the University of the West Indies when I was first starting out on that journey. So, I’ve always felt some level of bond,” Wickham said.
“St. Vincent has always been very close to me, and I’ve watched the evolution of the career with great interest. I’m now anxious to see how Dr [Godwin] Friday is able to take over, because, as I said, he goes down in history as being the person that has brought the longest reign to an end. I’m anxious to see how things go.”
Friday, who has been representing the Northern Grenadines since 2001, led the NDP to one of the most decisive victories that any political party has secured in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
In terms of the number of seats won, only the 1989 elections saw a better performance by a party, when the NDP won all 15 seats.
However, in terms of the number of popular votes it attracted, the NDP garnered 37,002 — 9,854 more than the ULP.
This compares with the 12 seats and 32,925 votes the ULP won when it secured a landslide victory in 2001, ending 17 years of NDP governance.
In the 2001 polls, the NDP received 23,844 votes and won the three remaining seats even as the ULP secured 9,081 votes more than the NDP.
“… politics is about change, and I understand that there will be an ebb and flow. And, certainly, the NDP could not stay out of office forever, so I totally expect that at some point in time they would have come in and I’m anxious to see how things work.”
Friday was leading the NDP to victory on his second attempt, having failed to do so in November 2020, four years after taking over the party leadership from Arnhim Eustace, who had been at the helm since October 2000.
In 2020, the ULP secured a fifth consecutive term in office, winning nine of the 15 seats, one more than in the previous parliament.
While the ULP won North Leeward by one vote after a contentious recount, it lost the popular vote for the first time since 1998.
“To be honest, I thought that Dr. Friday may have succeeded before because my expectation was as long as Arnhim Eustace moved on, the next leader would have been successful almost immediately,” Wickham said.
“It didn’t work out that way, but, nonetheless, it has happened now. So, all an interesting learning experience for me and I’m happy to have been a part of it,” the pollster said as he expressed gratitude for having been a part of the panel.
Wickam you are just a hypocrite, you are the one who predicted a ULP victory 8/7. You have recanted you prediction, therefore, I call.you by the very name a hypocrite.
I know I saw this face some where before. His previous prediction was incorrect and he has to cover his face now.
All polling, including election polling, are increasingly inaccurate because of issues like non-random sampling, biased questions, and — increasingly — lying by respondents.
This is why sampling, a branch of social science, is seen as the bottom rung of scientific analysis.
Mr. Wickham you are a very hypocritical person. In the past you made pronouncements about elections amd this time you were afraid to do so. An old cliche says that who pays the piper calls the tune. You told Ralph that the vaccine mandate and draconian legislation resulting 8n hundreds losing their jobs will not affect the election. You were dead wrong. It is as if you were paid extra to tell this tale.
The outcome of the elections in SVG have made you out to be a fraudster.
C.Ben-David David of Layou, you should hide you face in shame snd disgrace. No one buys you narrative on this site. If you still desire to be relevant at all material times. Get involved in community projects which will address the spiral crimes in Layou. Is it not you the very one who.predictwd that the NDP will never see power again? How is it different to Wickham prediction of a ulp victory of 8/7 or six in C.Ben-David rectum?
This election proves that some of these so called intellectuals were dead wrong in their analysis. I guess some were paid to lie. Their bias in favor of ulp cloud their brains. In the end the lyrics look foolish.