Many are of the view that the New Democratic Party (NDP) cannot actually win a general election in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Let us look at the numbers to determine if the numbers agree.
In 2001, the election results were as follows:
- ULP: 12 seats with 32,925 votes
- NDP: 3 seats with 23,844 votes
In 2001, the ULP won with a margin of over 9,000 votes.
In 2005, the election results were as follows:
- ULP: 12 seats with 32,006 votes
- NDP: 3 seats with 25,734 votes
In one election cycle, the NDP gained almost 2,000 votes while the ULP remained at approximately 32,000 votes.
In 2010, the election results were as follows:
- ULP: 8 seats with 32,099 votes
- NDP: 7 seats with 30,568 votes
In one election cycle, the NDP gained almost 5,000 votes while the Unity Labour Party (ULP) remained at approximately 32,000 votes. Between 2001-2010, the ULP had an average of 32,343 voters.
In 2015 the election results were as follows:
- ULP: 8 seats with 34,246 votes
- NDP: 7 seats with 31,027 votes
In 2015, the 34,246 votes were the most the ULP has ever had in its 31-year history. I attribute this to the fact that the Argyle International Airport, which opened on Feb. 14 2017, was substantially complete at the time of the election and the increase of 2,147 votes was a result of Vincentians wanting to fulfil the long-held dream of an international airport. To be quite honest, I too, wanted the ULP to win in 2015.
Coincidentally, the 31,027 votes in 2015 also represented the most votes the NDP ever had in its then 45-year history, even more than in 1989 when they won all 15 seats. Despite the airport, the NDP still enjoyed a modest increase in support.
In 2020, the election results were as follows:
- ULP: 9 seats with 32,419 votes
- NDP: 6 seats with 32,900 votes
These facts demonstrate something very critical. In every election cycle since 2001, the NDP has increased in support, gaining a massive 9,056 additional votes between 2001 and 2020.
The NDP gained almost 2,000 votes between 2015 and 2020. The biggest increase for the NDP came between 2005 and 2010, when the NDP gained 4,834 in one cycle. The only time the ULP ever saw such an increase was between 1998 and 2001, when they formed government with an increase of 4,900 votes. However, since that massive increase, their base has remained consistent for nearly 25 years, with only one exception.
Throughout the 31-year history of the ULP, they have averaged 31,953 voter. This means that their performance in 2020 was actually above average and was better than their performance in 1998, 2005 and 2010. Only 2001 and 2015 recorded better performances.
Interestingly, if you compare the support NDP got in 2020 and what ULP got in 2001, the ULP’s voter support is more by only 25 votes. I think it is important for the nation to understand that in numbers, the support the NDP received in 2020 is nearly identical to what the ULP got in 2001.
People have been so preoccupied with the fact that ULP has won five consecutive elections that they do not stop to consider what has been happening in the background over the last 24 years. Despite five consecutive losses, the NDP has closed the 9,000-vote deficit, surpassed the ULP and won the popular vote for the first time since 1998.
More critically, the ULP has consistently said that the reason the NDP won the popular vote in 2020 is because ULP supporters did not vote. That is one of the many lies currently being told by the ULP. ULP supporters did not stay away from the polls in 2020. Their performance in 2020 is actually on par with their performance in every single election since they were formed in 1994, save the 2015 cycle. Not only that, 2020 recorded the highest voter turnout since the country gained political independence in 1979. I encourage my readers to do their own research on everything presented here and trace the numbers. Everything is publicly available through official sources.
NDP won the popular vote because, unlike the ULP, their base has been consistently growing since 2001, and there is no data anywhere in our political history to suggest that that trend will change in 2025.
I will address the lie that NDP only won the majority vote because of the Grenadines in a separate article. Most of Ralph Gonsalves’ lies are so pathetic, it is a pity the Vincentian public does not read. I will also address in a separate article the lie that the ULP “increased its support” because of the 1-vote win in North Leeward. Indeed, an analysis of this type requires me to also analyse specific constituencies since we have a first-past-the-post system.
Make no mistake, if NDP’s momentum continues, the only way the ULP will win this upcoming election is if they have a record-breaking year.
The next article in this series will be entitled “The Curious Case of the Southern Grenadines”.
Jemalie John
The opinions presented in this content belong to the author and may not necessarily reflect the perspectives or editorial stance of iWitness News. Opinion pieces can be submitted to [email protected].
What a Brilliant and factural content of this article
Interesting, but am of the opinion Ralph is going to loose this time around looks tight , Ralph looks very tired and I think the voters realize that ,and they will send him packing.
At 79 years old representation of North Central Windward cannot be guaranteed by Gonsalves neither can he be expected to function for the next 5 years. His constituents have a much better opportunity with Chieftian Neptune and the NDP..
Vincention must come to the realisation that in spite of the airport and now a new seaport vincention is still dis franchise young people are more educate than before dtill cant fine jobs, we need new ideas to move the country forword ulp is at ease complacent, yes they do some stuff for the country like any government in power should do, it is true that you given a mandate to govan the country you shluld work in the interest of the country and not for self and hlur suporters, ndp now is your time to make this count change is in the air make it happen.
Call him the octogenerian who says ne hard to dead.
“Figures lie and liars figure” is a well known aphorism.
Seats won, not votes lost, is the one and only statistic that has any relevance to gaining or retaining power.
Accordingly, my prediction is that the ULP will win between 8 and 9 seats though it will once more lose the popular vote.