Vaccine mandate, ‘alarming’ youth support contributed to NDP victory – pollster

A Grenadian data analyst says that a post-election study shows that the COVID-19 vaccine mandate played a significant role in electors voting the Unity Labour Party out of office in the Nov. 27 general election in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The analyst, Justin Pierre, had said that a poll he conducted in October had shown that the ULP would have been returned to office for a sixth consecutive term.

However, the electors turned on the party and handed 14 of the 15 parliamentary seats to the New Democratic Party (NDP), returning it to office after almost a quarter-century in opposition.

Pierre said that the day after the election, his team had a focus group meeting with 38 Vincentian voters who had agreed, before the vote, to participate.

“And what we found out, for example, which I never knew, … the vaccine mandate was something that really affected the voters,” said Pierre, who said he had interviewed 2,402 people in SVG between Oct. 1 and 30 and based on his findings had been “100% sure” that the ULP would have won the election.

He said some of the focus group members had repeatedly voted for the ULP in the past but did not turn out to vote in the Nov. 27 polls.

“And the person said, … I’m a police officer. I was a teacher, and I lost everything. My wife didn’t take the vaccine and lost my mortgage. I would not go to the NDP but I couldn’t vote for the ULP either.”

Pierre said those types of responses were seen repeatedly among members of the focus group.

“… this was something that we did not pick up. It was not even a question in our survey, but in the post-election, when we’re interviewing the people, a lot of these things came up and persons said that they were greatly affected, they lost a lot, and it was very difficult for them and they switched. And, we see the result,” Pierre said, noting that his team has accurately forecast the outcome of eight of nine elections in the Caribbean.

Pierre said it was interesting that his post-election research showed that people lost support for then prime minister, Ralph Gonsalves when they saw him begging voters to remain faithful to the ULP, two days before the election.

Jomo Thomas: Mandate ‘the most significant thing in the vastness of the ULP defeat’

Meanwhile, Vincentian journalist and social commentator, Jomo Thomas, who accurately predicted the election result in August and again on Nov. 14, said on the same programme that the vaccine mandate was “the most significant thing in the vastness of the ULP defeat.”.

Thomas, who was a candidate for the ULP in the 2015 election but later broke ranks with the party and called for their removal from office, pointed out that in the 2020 general election, the ULP lost the popular vote for the first time since 1998.

“… but they lost it by a mere 500 votes. The 2025 election, they lost it by almost 10,000 votes,” he said.

Thomas said that the panel that commented on the election result on state media in SVG tried to paper over the impact of the mandate on the outcome of the polls.

“But the 800-pound gorilla in the Vincentian election was the vaccine mandate. We had high unemployment, we had poverty, we had corruption, we had all of those things. We had high crime. We were second in the region in terms of homicides. All of those were there in 2020, yet the ULP was able to win and to snatch a seat by a single vote,” Thomas said.

“This time, they were completely obliterated — completely. Part of it, too, is that it is always difficult for a party to go for a third term, and here was a party going for a sixth.”

Thomas said that beyond that, the issues were so much that, as he said in his column, the only thing the ULP had was money.

“… and our population, happily, is growing above the kind of bribery that normally passes for electioneering in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. And I’m so glad for that.”

Meanwhile, Pierre said the number of young people supporting the NDP was “alarming”, which was something that had been picked up in the pre-election survey.

“So, when we looked at the analysis, we found that the employed, the unemployed, the underemployed and persons who were close to unemployment, a lot of the youth, especially in the inner city, had overwhelming support for the NDP.

“And we said that since they were like 38% of the population, 57% of these persons stated that they will vote the NDP. That was the biggest Achilles heel for the ULP because their mass, their influence, and as a result, they were running the social media presence.

“In fact, … over 900,000 minutes of social media’s time. That’s a lot, and plus the help from everyone.”

Pierre said he had presented the findings of his pre-election survey to Gonsalves, explaining why the research team believed that the ULP would win the election.

The same was done with a representative of the NDP.

“… but we realise that … marginal swings can change everything. But what we saw a fundamental swing in terms of the NDP, just taking everything,” Pierre said and suggested that the NDP’s victory in Marriaqua was surprising.

Pierre said the data showed strong support for the ULP among women in all the elections since 2000, and the survey suggested that this would have been the deciding factor.

“That was the only thing the ULP had for them, was the woman, the strong woman support. But the youth now took that away — the 18 to 48 range just swept everything, because they came out in large numbers and took everything.”

Pierre said that of the 15 constituencies in SVG, his group had the highest confidence – 78% — that the ULP would retain North Central Windward, the only seat that it won.

Gonsalves, 78, who served as prime minister from March 2001 to November 2025, retained the seat he has represented since 1994.

However, Pierre was of the opinion that the opposition leader would not serve out a full term.

“So, what we also found out was that, obviously, based on age and biology, he would definitely have to call a by-election and get someone. Maybe he could get his son or somebody.”