The Grenadian data analyst who now has a blip on his record after incorrectly forecasting that the Unity Labour Party (ULP) would have been returned to office for a sixth consecutive term in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, says his poll was conducted too early.
Justin Pierre, who holds a doctorate and is a statistician, demographer, and labour market consultant, said that the COVID-19 vaccine mandate did not feature in their pre-election survey but emerged as a major factor in their post-election research.
In November 2021, the ULP government fired hundreds of public sector workers for refusing to take a COVID-19 jab as ordered.
Pierre also said that his pre-election survey did not foresee the spike in social media consumption of content from the New Democratic Party (NDP), which went on to win the polls.
The data analyst said that his team interviewed 2,402 people in SVG between Oct. 1 and 30 and “were 100% sure” that the ULP would win the election.
However, the ULP was obliterated at the polls, winning just one constituency as the other 14 went to the NDP, which had been in opposition since March 2001.
What’s more, the NDP won 9,854 more popular vote than the ULP, amassing 37,002 ballots compared to the ULP’s 27.148, according to the preliminary figures.
The NDP’s performance was second only to the 1989 vote when it won all 15 seats.
“All of the data was there. We divided the country in terms of population, voter turnout. Eighty-something per cent of the ULP persons that we interviewed said that they will continue to vote the way they voted,” Pierre said on the Bubb Report, hosted by US-based Grenadian journalist Kellon Bubb.
“And so, we sort of analysed the country based on the proper statistical, psephological models. And it was correct. So, we maintained that posture,” Pierre said.
“… this is the first time we made a prediction 30 days in advance. Normally, we will make our prediction between five to seven days,” said Pierre, who had accurately predicted eight other elections in the Caribbean before getting the Vincentian vote wrong.
Pierre said he had made his prediction so early in the game “because of the timing.
“… when we conducted the survey, it was very difficult for us to conduct the survey because the momentum was changing. And what we saw, for example, from the first of November to the 27th of November was totally different to what we saw when we conducted the survey.”
Pierre said that in October, the social media consumption rate for NDP content was 110,100 to 157,00 in favour of the NDP.
“… from Nov. 15 onwards, we saw that in our data, there was a total of almost 900,000 minutes consumed. So, the NDP totally blast out the ULP in terms of social minute consumption.”
Pierre said that based on previous elections, … any party that leads in the social media tend to win in the election.
“Within the last 15 days, there was a lot of change. The campaign financing, a lot of help from Jamaica, the Jamaican government provided a lot of assistance in terms of getting their specialist to come down and help the NDP, alleged support from Trinidad and Tobago, alleged campaign financing.”
In mid November, when he released the finding of his study, Pierre had told another Grenadian media outlet that his group tries not to be hired by anyone “because we do not want to let the other party have an advantage.
“Because if anyone hires us to do any political work, the other party cannot win … because, as I said, most political parties don’t have the technology that we have, and the technology that we have, generally comes from India …”
However, speaking alongside Pierre on the Bubb Report after the election, Vincentian journalist, lawyer and social commentator Jomo Thomas, who accurately predicted the election months apart – in August and again on Nov. 14, questioned Pierre’s confidence in his data.
“Well, if you have a parliament on the knife’s edge, with ULP having nine-six, having won one of the seats by a single vote, and where its commanding majorities were reduced in 2020, I’m not so sure that I would bet my hand that a given party is going to win,” Thomas said.
He noted that in his analysis, Pierre had said the ULP had a 2% lead, while the survey’s margin of error was also 2%.
“Well, if you have a 2% lead in a margin of error 2%, it seems to me that’s a dead heat. I’m not so sure why you would be so commanding that one side or the other is going to win.”
Thomas noted that he had said in his Plain Talk columns in August and again on Nov. 14, that the only safe seat that the ULP had was North Central Windward – the only seat that it won in the election.
Thomas also noted that he had boldly predicted a swing of between 4% and 7% away from the ULP following the 5% swing in 2020, as buyers’ remorse was entrenched.
In both columns, Thomas had said, “Rhetoric aside, ULP has only one impregnable seat. It can only limp home to another term. NDP is about to romp home to victory.”
Pierre said that in the future, his team should stick to making predictions within one week of an election.
“We believe that … 30 days was a little long,” he said.
The folks Pierre interviewed were probably all ULP supporters. One actually has to go door to door to find out how folks feel about the party and the candidates. I predicted nine seats for the NDP (Central and South Leeward and North Windward).
I spoke to several voters in Layou and realized that Brewster was losing supporters because of his inaction in the community. Then the one vote Carlos got in the previous election was disappearing when he played or didn’t in the Quarry issue in the constituency. Then the volcano issue in the North Windward showed its face when little was done for the folks who suffered from the eruption.
I didn’t see it coming for Camillo and Saboto; even though I encouraged Saboto to cross the floor and join the NDP. He was never on Ralph’s radar to be the leader of the ULP.
Who pays the piper calls the tune. The former PM quoted this source as his only legitimate poll. The variants that were left put such as social media and the vaccine mandate was very strange. Any serious pollster doing a poll on svg elections would include these as they weighed heavily on the outcome. The blind could have seen this. To do otherwise was nuprofessional and infantile
Just admit you had it all wrong rather make a fool bof yourself.
You know what? In my opinion political science is more theoretical than practical. Guess what? Here in the Caribbean we have two snake oil sale men masquerading as pollsters and political scientists. These two men, one of them is a Barbadian so-called political scientist or pollster Peter Wickham and the other man Justin Pierre a Grenadian so-called political scientist and pollster. These two men are charlatans. You know what? Their cronyism was exposed in the November 27th 2025, general elections. These charlatans, if by magic, came up with a theory that the forced vaccination of the Vincentian people would not be a factor in SVG’s general elections. You know what? I liken these two men to white slave masters who used the bible to try and manipulate African slaves to think that white people were superior to them. Even though, those depraved and inhumane people made reading illegal for African slaves. It didn’t make the African slaves believed that they were inferior to white people. Moreover, Peter Wickham and Justin Pierre like the white slaves masters did back in the days of slavery, Wickham and Pierre, tried to manipulate and program Vincentians into believing that they were simple minded people and that the horror Vincentians experienced under the Ralph Gonsalves government was not real. In other words Wickham and Pierre were telling Vincentians not to believe their lying eyes. Wickham and Pierre are useless and horrible people. Believe it or not, Wickham and Pierre are not selling political science, they are selling witchcraft. You know what? In my lifetime, Ralph Gonsalves is the most racist and bigoted prime minister SVG had ever had. Furthermore, over the past 24 years, Ralph Gonsalves had called Vincentians the most racist and bigoted names. Ralph Gonsalves calked Vincentians horrible names, like dirty dog, nappy head, coco bay and coconut bat. At one time, Gonsalves said that, if George W Bush was to him and Arnhim Eustace in the middle of the night, George W, would never recognized Eustace.